In the 2025 edition of the Allianz Trade Global Survey, we have taken the pulse of companies with exporting / producing at least 50% of their turnover before and after Liberation Day. Our survey encompassed 4,500 companies across 9 markets: China, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Singapore, Spain, the UK, and the US, collectively representing nearly 60% of global GDP, our assessment on impact for companies.

Structural shifts across markets, policy, and geopolitics are converging to test the adaptability of institutions and industries alike. In our What to watch section this week, we examine whether financial markets are beginning to integrate biodiversity risk, we track the economic implications of pivotal elections in Europe, we assess mounting pressures on the US pharmaceutical sector, and review corporate earnings to gauge the resilience of the business cycle. The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence—it is to act with yesterday’s logic.

2025 Allianz Trade Global Survey: Trade war, trade deals and their impacts on companies

The comprehensive survey results for you here.

• The unpredictability of US trade policy has dented exporters’ confidence
  42% of exporters now expect turnover to fall between -2% and -10% over the next year—up from under 5% before “Liberation Day.” The Allianz Trade Global Survey (March–April 2025, ~4,500 firms) shows nearly 60% foresee a negative impact from the full-scale US-China trade war launched on April 2. Fewer than half expect export growth, down from 80%. Production may pause: 27% cite FX volatility and tariffs, while 32% may cut imports or offshore work. Post-“Liberation Day,” German firms are prioritizing cost-efficiency (45%), while 77% of Chinese firms plan to diversify and invest in strategic areas. Even with recent trade deals, volatility will likely keep driving diversification—continuing a trend since Trump’s 2017 term.

• More than half of exporters anticipate longer payment terms, with delays to exceed seven days in half of the cases
  Only 11% of firms are paid within 30 days, with lower figures in the US, China, and Germany. About 70% receive payments in 30–70 days, with longer terms for larger firms and in sectors like metals and agrifood. Since “Liberation Day,” 24% of exporters expect delays to exceed a week (+13pps), especially in Italy and Poland. Over half see worsening terms, notably among SMEs and in agriculture and manufacturing. Payment terms remain a minor financing tool—only 14% relied on them pre-war, favoring cash flow (21%) and bank loans (18%). Non-payment risk is rising: 48% expect it to increase, particularly in the US, UK, and Italy.

• Even though the new trade deal brings the US average import tariff rate on China to 39%, down from an eye-watering 103%, this is still much higher than the 13% applied before the second Trump administration
  US firms continue frontloading and rerouting shipments to manage costs. Before tariffs, 79% frontloaded imports; 25% acted pre-election. Now, 62% plan to reroute, aided by a nearly 50% drop in shipping prices. Despite the new deal, the 39% tariff rate remains steep, making alternate routes via Southeast Asia, the Gulf, or Latin America more attractive.

• Firms are pushing costs on others: from raising prices on their customers to leaving customs duties to their suppliers
  Post-“Liberation Day,” 54% of US firms plan to raise prices (up from 46%). Sourcing from new markets rose to 31%, especially in Poland and Spain. Only 22% aim to absorb the added costs, fewer than before in the US, France, and Italy. Chinese firms may delay price hikes during the 90-day pause. Buyers increasingly favor “Delivered Duty Paid” Incoterms, shifting logistics and customs responsibilities to sellers—except in the US, where “Cost, Insurance & Freight” remains dominant. To offset FX risk, 59% of companies favor pricing clauses in contracts.

• Diversification to mitigate the impact of the trade war: around one-third of companies have already found new markets for exports and supply, and almost two-thirds are planning to do so
  Over a third of firms have already diversified export markets; nearly two-thirds plan to. For supply chains, 54% cite geopolitical and social risks among their top concerns. Tariffs and disruptions are driving realignment: even before “Liberation Day,” 34% had already relocated offshore production or suppliers, and 59% planned to. Among US firms, 60% had already secured relocation destinations.

• US-China de-risking is likely to continue despite the 90-day trade deal
  The truce offers temporary relief, but firms are sticking with long-term plans to reduce exposure. Chinese companies with North American supply chains are shifting toward Asia-Pacific (39%, up from 26%) or Europe. All surveyed Chinese firms now plan to relocate. US companies are also pivoting: Western Europe and Latin America each gained ~15pp in preference since “Liberation Day,” while interest in Asia-Pacific declined. Export appetite between the two countries has fallen sharply: US interest in China dropped 11pps; Chinese interest in the US, 12pps. Decoupling is expected to continue.

• The trade war is creating opportunistic friendshoring: the Europe-Asia rapprochement
  Europe is gaining ground as Chinese firms with US exposure look elsewhere—25% now prefer Europe (up from 15%). European firms are also eyeing Asia more: export interest rose 6pps (to 36%), and interest in Southeast Asia doubled to 14%. Fewer German firms now plan to exit China (50%, down from 67%), and Asia-Pacific has become their top relocation target (43%, up from 28%).

• Can the Latin American exception hold?
  Latin America is emerging as a winner, especially for firms seeking US access with lower tariffs. Chinese interest jumped 10pps (5% to 15%), and 35% now plan to stay in the region—up from 24%. European firms’ export interest also rose 6pps (4% to 10%).

The comprehensive survey results for you here.

What to Watch this week

You will find the full set of stories here.

• Is finance catching up with the biodiversity crisis? The theme of this year’s International Day for Biological Diversity is “Harmony with Nature and Sustainable Development,” underscoring the urgent need to align economic policy with nature protection. Biodiversity loss poses a major economic risk, with global GDP projected to shrink by 2.3% by 2030 under a conservative scenario. In the US, Japan and the EU, around 10-13% of GDP is generated by sectors that are highly dependent on nature, while the share is over 30% for emerging countries like Indonesia and India. In 2023, global biodiversity finance reached USD208bn but a USD942bn annual funding gap remains. Meanwhile, USD2.68trn in harmful public subsidies continues to fuel ecosystem degradation, highlighting the urgency of aligning policy actions.

• Europe on the rocks: new populist gravity in three elections. Elections in Romania, Poland and Portugal reflect the political fragmentation across Europe. In Romania, pro-EU Nicușor Dan won the presidency, stabilizing bond yields on expectations of fiscal consolidation and tackling the twin deficit of -9%. At the same time, ultranationalist George Simion’s strong showing highlights widespread dissatisfaction. In Poland, centrist Rafał Trzaskowski faces a tight run-off against nationalist Karol Nawrocki, with the outcome crucial for EU reforms. In Portugal, the far-right Chega party’s rise signals discontent, though fiscal health remains solid and well reflected in recent rating upgrade and low risk premium. Overall, financing risks have intensified and an urgent acceleration of NGEU spending should be a priority for all three governments.

• US pharma: Make drugs cheap again. With Americans paying 2-4x more for prescription medicines than other advanced economies, President Trump has urged pharmaceutical companies to voluntarily cut drug prices by 30-80% within 30 days. If successful, this could impact global markets as US and European firms derive 58% and 45% of their revenue from the US. The top 20 pharma companies earned USD827bn last year, but a 50% price cut for Medicare and Medicaid patients would have reduced this to USD606bn, unsustainable for an industry that invests 15%-20% of revenue in R&D. Meanwhile, five major firms have pledged USD180bn in US investments, enhancing the sector’s already strong negotiating power. Reliance on imports from China and India could still put the sector in the tariff spotlight, though this could disrupt local production and contradict efforts to reduce drug costs.

• Q1 2025 earnings: Strong starts, cautious outlook. Despite macro and geopolitical challenges, US S&P 500 companies posted strong earnings, while Europe saw modest growth with cautious earnings revisions due to tariffs and currency headwinds. However, amid ongoing tariff turmoil, US companies now anticipate 2025 growth at +8.5%, down from 10.5% pre-“Liberation Day”, while EU companies expect +1.9%, down from +5.8%. Financials, technology, and infrastructure are outperforming, while consumer discretionary and energy lag. Despite headwinds, our macro-based EPS growth models confirm analysts’ expectations of earnings resilience through 2025.

You will find the full set of stories here.